Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 46.131683 54.263605 63.149956 73.547911 85.345450 98.279120 113.493864
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 33.842445 44.628162 57.530816 73.955182 94.144158 117.979883 148.063370
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 27.012539 38.975224 54.323360 75.137644 102.265389 136.029751 180.784075
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 20.213002 31.738504 47.515544 70.171793 101.268799 141.785234 197.776444
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 17.348677 29.218049 46.349104 72.103086 108.918767 158.611661 229.500116
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 14.443650 26.060038 43.710097 71.429254 112.594957 170.006080 254.317204
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 13.338353 25.467930 44.683836 75.935567 123.765301 192.191771 294.955282
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.658646 21.814023 40.403844 71.924449 121.904378 195.557839 309.062391
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.654868 20.876311 40.331912 74.398477 129.891143 213.514080 344.887612
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.198130 20.851438 41.749124 79.344314 141.975142 238.109917 391.543084
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.377508 19.991579 41.588892 81.577218 149.788929 256.525894 429.696079
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.532154 18.937612 40.936674 82.852365 156.037298 272.732319 465.096591
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.226320 16.813906 38.270459 80.744664 157.218879 282.194979 492.508199
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.350663 15.469577 36.954116 81.018524 162.621511 298.988235 532.774770
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.699226 14.496031 36.225366 82.276846 169.782931 318.999616 579.127531
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.619527 12.189347 32.337180 76.914091 164.490996 317.751969 590.677497
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.252690 11.647749 32.193614 78.999330 173.036853 340.466850 642.843844
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.758847 10.620407 30.780081 78.271776 176.143695 353.818878 679.786729
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.644586 10.684083 31.944486 83.135658 190.377652 387.504256 752.807082
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.080565 9.185986 29.055320 78.806441 186.110483 387.725322 767.968592
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.912311 8.936298 29.281076 81.477008 196.088623 414.337090 830.365219
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.864959 9.098591 30.611437 86.812541 211.863686 452.348962 914.362447
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.707313 8.816020 30.698613 89.220048 221.668261 479.607009 980.110344